Twentieth-Century Sea Surface Temperature Patterns in the Pacific during Decadal Moisture Regimes over the United States*

AbstractMonthly tropical sea surface temperature (SST) data are used as predictors to make statistical forecasts of cold season (November–March) precipitation and temperature for the contiguous United States. Through the use of the combined-lead sea surface temperature (CLSST) model, predictive information is discovered not just in recent SSTs but also from SSTs up to 18 months prior. We find that CLSST cold season forecast anomaly correlation skill is higher than that of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) and the SEAS5 model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) when averaged over the United States for both precipitation and 2-m air temperature. The precipitation forecast skill obtained by CLSST in parts of the Intermountain West is of particular interest because of its implications for water resources. In those regions, CLSST dramatically improves the skill over that of the dynamical model ensembles, which can be attributed to a robust statistical response of precipitation in this region to SST anomalies from the previous year in the tropical Pacific.

Download Full-text

Large-scale anomalies in sea-surface temperature and air-sea fluxes during wind relaxation events off the United States West Coast in summer

Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans ◽

10.1002/2016jc012613 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 122 (3) ◽

pp. 2574-2594 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Kayla R. Flynn ◽

Melanie R. Fewings ◽

Christopher Gotschalk ◽

Kelly Lombardo

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Surface Temperature ◽

Sea Surface Temperature ◽

West Coast ◽

Large Scale ◽

The United States ◽

Sea Surface

Download Full-text

Summer aridity in the United States: Response to mid-Holocene changes in insolation and sea surface temperature

Geophysical Research Letters ◽

10.1029/2006gl028012 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 33 (22) ◽

Cited By ~ 59

Author(s):

Noah S. Diffenbaugh ◽

Moetasim Ashfaq ◽

Bryan Shuman ◽

John W. Williams ◽

Patrick J. Bartlein

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Surface Temperature ◽

Sea Surface Temperature ◽

The United States ◽

Sea Surface

Download Full-text

North American April tornado occurrences linked to global sea surface temperature anomalies

Science Advances ◽

10.1126/sciadv.aaw9950 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 5 (8) ◽

pp. eaaw9950 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

J.-E. Chu ◽

A. Timmermann ◽

J.-Y. Lee

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Surface Temperature ◽

Sea Surface Temperature ◽

North American ◽

General Circulation ◽

Large Scale ◽

Moisture Flux ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

The United States ◽

Sea Surface

Annual tornado occurrences over North America display large interannual variability and a statistical linkage to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. However, the underlying physical mechanisms for this connection and its modulation in a rapidly varying seasonal environment still remain elusive. Using tornado data over the United States from 1954 to 2016 in combination with SST-forced atmospheric general circulation models, we show a robust dynamical linkage between global SST conditions in April, the emergence of the Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern (PNA), and the year-to-year tornado activity in the Southern Great Plains (SGP) region of the United States. Contrasting previous studies, we find that only in April SST-driven atmospheric circulation anomalies can effectively control the northward moisture-laden flow from the Gulf of Mexico, boosting low-level moisture flux convergence over the SGP. These strong large-scale connections are absent in other months because of the strong seasonality of the PNA and background moisture conditions.

Download Full-text